BREEZY CHILL:  The work week begins rather tranquil, with the exception of a breezy and chilly day today.  Northwest flow continues, which will hold the clouds around early in the day.  Despite the stiff breeze from the NW 10-20 gusting to 30mph, the flow aloft will shift a bit allowing for some sunshine to make the return through the afternoon hours.  Some early flurries in our northwest counties should subside during the morning.  Highs today will top out near 40°.  Overnight, we’re clear and into the middle 20s.

We start with sunshine Tuesday and temps will rise into the low to middle 40s.  Then clouds begin to arrive ahead of Wednesday’s storm.

WEDNESDAY STORM:  Ok, we have better model agreement now that the storm is over the U.S. and we can shove more raw data into the models.  The outputs are still painting a “bulls-eye” of snowfall, which stays mainly to our west and south.  With that being said, subtle changes to track, moisture, and intensity could make for big changes to our forecast.  Some models still have us very dry, but we’re on the edge of heavy snows.  So here’s what we’ll break it down into.

WHAT WE KNOW:
This will be a significant snow storm for  some, likely the mountains of WV, VA, MD.  The highest amounts locally will be to our south and west, along the PA/MD border.  The timing looks like after dark Tuesday until Wednesday evening, with lingering effects through Thursday morning.  Heaviest will be during the day Wednesday.  Significant totals are now clipping parts of Franklin county.

WHAT WE DON’T KNOW:
We still don’t know for sure exactly where that “bulls-eye” will set up shop.  Confidence is growing that it stays south and west of us, but we’re still nearly two days away from the event.  Much can change.  We also aren’t close to giving snow totals for the region yet.  NWS feels confident that accumulating snow is likely for counties just to our west in PA.  Confidence is not high enough for our area just yet.  Subtle changes in track/moisture/ect. can make for huge differences in our forecast.  Temperatures should be fine for accumulations, but a few degrees can make a huge difference.

(Courtesy Earl Baker’s Severe Weather Page.  These are two models, run at the same time using different mathematics.  Notice the vast difference in snowfall totals across the mid-state because they handle the track and intensity of the storm differently.  These are two of many models we use to forecast snow.  These are not official forecasts, just a visual to show you why we are not forecasting snow totals for our area yet.)

So the bottom line is to stay prepared for a snow storm on Wednesday.  We’ll likely see flakes flying, but the accumulations are still very much up in the air right now.  Models are painting a sharp gradient of snowfall right now.  Stay tuned.

WEDNESDAY STORM:  The storm moves out Thursday and we gradually return to sunshine and milder weather as we move into the weekend.  It looks like anything we get on Wednesday will likely melt into the weekend as temperatures climb under sunny skies.  We’re in the mid 40s Thursday and rise to near 50° on Sunday.  For now, we look to remain dry through the weekend.

Here’s to a perfect Monday!

- Jeff Jumper, Fox43 Morning Meteorologist
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