Sunshine and talks of snow

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SUNSHINE:  Tuesday will feature more sunshine for those who didn’t get to see it on Monday.  Clouds will mix out through the day with sun winning the battle.  Highs will reach the middle 40s with a westerly breeze at 10-20mph.  With clearing skies and a diminishing breeze, expect temps to fall quickly this evening with overnight lows in the upper 20s.

MID-WEEK CLOSE CALL:  A storm system develops to our south on Wednesday.  This is going to move out to the Atlantic by Thursday morning; however, the northern edge of the precipitation from this system looks to clip our area with some rain and snow.

We’ll see clouds thicken quickly on Wednesday.  Then some snow may start us off turning to rain in the far southern counties during the afternoon as temps climb to near 40°.  This all turns back to snow for the evening, tapering overnight early.  It looks like we’re going to be so close to the edge of this precipitation that we’ll only pick up a few inches out of this.  The forecast has been very iffy on exactly how much this system will impact us, so we’ll need to fine tune this forecast tonight and tomorrow morning.  For now, expect the potential for a tough but manageable PM commute for Wednesday.

(Here are two different model predictions for the snow amounts late Wednesday into early Thursday.  Notice the vast difference in totals for the same system.)

We’re seasonably cool and mild and dry for Valentine’s Day through Friday, with highs in the low 40s and a mixture of sun and clouds.

WEEKEND HEADACHE:  The weekend forecast has been terrorizing us forecasters for days.  The confidence is high that a large trough of colder air will dig southward into the northeast, dumping our temperatures into the 30s and 20s for highs.  However, the problem is how the models are resolving a wave of energy that will ride along this trough.

From one run to the next, each model is giving us an all or nothing scenario.  All being a major snow storm or nothing being a system out to sea.  This morning, most of the models are in the nothing scenario with a few in the all scenario.  This is a tough forecast to call.  For now, we’re mostly cloudy with colder air and mainly dry.  Keep in mind; this may change drastically over the next few days.  Be ready for a weekend system.

(Models are having trouble honing in on the exact track of the low for the weekend, which has major impacts on how our forecast pans out.)

– Jeff Jumper, Fox43 Morning Meteorologist
Follow me on Twitter: @JeffJumperWX
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