Independent likely voters shift to Democrat Hillary Clinton, giving her the lead over Republican Donald Trump in the critical swing states of Colorado, Florida, and Pennsylvania and moving her into a tie with Trump in Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll.
Clinton also has double-digit leads among women likely voters and leads of 28 to 76 percentage points among non-white voters, the poll finds.
Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, show: Colorado: Clinton tops Trump 45 – 37 percent, with 10 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein. Clinton had 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent September 22; Florida: Clinton edges Trump 48 – 44 percent, with 4 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Stein. Clinton topped Trump 46 – 41 percent October 3; Ohio: Trump and Clinton tied 45 – 45 percent, with 6 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Stein. Trump led Clinton 47 – 42 percent October 3; Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 47 – 41 percent, with 6 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Stein. Clinton was up 45 – 41 percent October 3.
“Secretary Clinton has held or increased her lead following the second debate,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Obviously the allegations by a number of women about Donald Trump’s behavior have taken a toll among some of those who had been in his column.”
“Of particular importance are the Clinton leads in Florida and Pennsylvania. Trump probably can’t win if he loses one of them, and he’s toast if he loses both. In addition, Trump’s lead in Ohio, his best big swing state, is now gone,” Brown added.
“Trump’s best hope is a knockout win in the last debate Wednesday evening, his last shot at a national audience. Once the Wednesday debate is over, the last three weeks of the campaign will be fought by competing turnout machines and TV commercials. Many observers believe Clinton has the superior ground game and money edge to dominate the airwaves.”
Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
Colorado: Clinton tops Trump 51 – 40 percent;
Florida: Clinton over Trump 49 – 45 percent;
Ohio: Trump at 48 percent to Clinton’s 47 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton leads Trump 51 – 45 percent.
Colorado
Colorado independent likely voters go 38 percent for Clinton and 34 percent for Trump, compared to a 42 – 33 percent Trump lead in this voting bloc September 22. Republicans back Trump 84 – 7 percent, while Democrats back Clinton 89 – 1 percent.
Clinton leads 52 – 31 percent among women and 52 – 24 percent among non-white voters. Trump leads 42 – 37 percent among men and gets 43 percent of white voters to Clinton’s 41 percent.
“Some Colorado comfort for Hillary Clinton and Sen. Tim Kaine. For Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Pence, a cold shoulder and a mountain possibly too high to climb,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Florida
Florida independent likely voters shift from 42 – 39 percent for Trump October 3 to 46 – 38 percent for Clinton today. Republicans back Trump 85 – 8 percent while Democrats back Clinton 91 – 6 percent.
She leads 54 – 39 percent among women likely voters, while men back Trump 49 – 40 percent. White voters go Republican 57 – 34 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 73 – 19 percent.
“Hillary Clinton is holding a thin lead in Florida because she is winning the battle for independent voters and holding her lead among women, non-white voters and her Democratic base. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson, considered the alternative to Clinton or Trump, is not catching fire in the Sunshine State,” Brown said.
Ohio
Ohio non-white likely voters back Clinton by a staggering 84 – 8 percent, offsetting Trump’s 52 – 37 percent lead among white voters. Women back Clinton 53 – 41 percent, as men back Trump 50 – 36 percent.
The big shift is among independent voters, who go from 52 – 33 percent for Trump October 3 to a virtual tie today, with 41 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton. Republicans back Trump 89 – 6 percent, while Democrats go to Clinton 94 – 3 percent.
“Ohio has been Donald Trump’s best of the major swing states, giving him a five-point lead earlier this month. But here, too, the controversies seem to be taking their toll on the Trump vote. The race in the Buckeye state is a dead heat and the poll’s internals show just how tight the race is there. Trump is leading by 14 points among men; Secretary Clinton up 12 points among women,” Brown said.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania independent likely voters back Clinton 43 – 36 percent, compared to a too- close-to-call 38 – 35 percent Clinton lead among this group October 3. Republicans go to Trump 85 – 7 percent, as Democrats back Clinton 83 – 10 percent.
She leads 52 – 37 percent among women likely voters and 72 – 17 percent among non- white voters. Trump leads 47 – 40 percent among men and 47 – 41 percent among white voters.
“Hillary Clinton tops President Barack Obama’s five-point winning margin in the Keystone State. Can she hold on for 22 more days?” Malloy asked.
