SHOWERS ARRIVE TONIGHT: An impressive system will bring the first of its wet weather our way tonight. A few showers creep into the area this evening, becoming steadier and maybe even heavier through the overnight period. There may be a brief lull in the precipitation early Thursday morning with some entirely dry time possible. Temperatures will be warming through the overnight period tonight, so our coolest temperatures will likely be right around midnight. Winds will start to pick up as early as soon 1 AM tonight as the transport of warm and humid air dramatically warms us. Gusty winds around 30-40 mph will be likely already tonight into early tomorrow. By the time we get to Thursday morning, we should already be climbing up into the mid 60s for temperatures! As much milder air moves in, it brings with it much more moisture and instability. Winds get even gustier by Thursday evening as the most potent part of the storm closes in with widespread wind gusts around 45-55 mph likely and the potential for 60+ mph very much on the table!
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: With this same system already likely to bring heavy rain and gusty winds, we will be monitoring the threat of severe weather. Particularly we are going to be watching the potential for damaging wind gusts and straight-line wind damage, a low threat of a brief spin-up tornado, and very heavy rain that could lead to flooding. This system is bringing together the most ideal ingredients in an environment that has a lot of moisture, instability and spin. The main time-frame for the tornado threat will likely be 4 PM – 9 PM. Heavy rain and strong winds will continue beyond 9 PM, but the threat for tornadoes diminishes significantly. Upwards of 2-3″ of rain is possible in spots when all is said and done. The Weather Prediction Center has us highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flooding. We feel that threat is higher for our area given the numbers we are seeing. Precipitation will taper off around 3-4 AM Thursday into Friday, but winds will remain gusty.
WINDS CALM DOWN LATE FRIDAY: Following a busy 36 hours of weather, winds will slowly calm down as we head into late Friday evening. High pressure will nose in out of the west Saturday allowing winds to calm down. Plenty of sunshine expected for the first half of the weekend, but as the coldest air of the season arrives — we will struggle to get out of the low to mid 50s for highs. Winds pick up again late overnight Saturday into Sunday as another front crosses through. In the wake of that front, lake-effect snow showers will be likely in western-PA and western-NY. For us, a much cooler Sunday is likely and also plenty of cloud cover. Don’t forget to push the clocks back one hour before heading to bed on Saturday night!
Stay “Weather Smart” with the Fox 43 Weather Team all week long!
Have a great day!
– Chief Meteorologist MaryEllen Pann