WASHINGTON — As we get closer to the 2024 Presidential Election, we want to get some clarity about some of the key parts of the process. We know one of the things you’ll be waiting on is when each state gets called for a winner. We wanted to look into who decides and how to call elections for a projected winner.
On Election Night there is no federal body that steps in to declare winners. Since 1848, the Associated Press has taken on that role. To get insight into the process we spoke with folks at the AP.
The first election where the AP declared a winner was between Whig Zachary Taylor and Democrat Lewis Cass. Taylor won with 163 electoral votes and only 47% of the popular vote. The AP has worked in that role ever since; calling presidential, congressional, governors, down to local races.
We wanted to know how they pick the projected winners.
It’s important to note that the AP does projections, they don’t officially call the winners. Basically what the AP looks for is, as votes come in, which candidate takes a lead.
As the AP team follows the lead, at what point does that lead become insurmountable for the other party? They compare that lead with how many votes are left to be counted. When the lead is too great, the AP calls the race and projects a winner.
Sometimes it can take days to count all the mail-in and absentee ballots, but the AP can make some projections right away on Election Night.
While the AP does not call races before the polls close, it uses data-driven analytics to call early projections. As we mentioned before, it is done first by looking at the votes counted, and votes left to count then comparing those numbers with a range of data from historic voting patterns to voter registration stats to electorate surveys. They then compare that data with the remaining precincts to be counted.
If the data proves the candidate trailing cannot overtake the leader, AP makes the call.
However, if a race is too tight, they talk it over directly with local election officials, then wait until it's more clear to call.
The standard the AP said it holds their team to is 100% accuracy.