PENNSYLVANIA, USA — Republican David McCormick cut Democratic Sen. Bob Casey's leads in Philadelphia and its populous suburbs and built leads in the more GOP-leaning parts of the state, foreclosing the incumbent's pathway to victory when The Associated Press called the race.
McCormick was leading by more than 30,000 votes when AP called the race at 4:09 p.m., and though there were an estimated 91,000 votes still outstanding, there were not enough in areas supporting Casey for him to make up the difference.
McCormick didn't win in the Democratic-leaning city of Philadelphia. But like Republicans across the map and President-elect Donald Trump, he sliced significantly the support that Democrats got. For instance: Casey was winning the city with about 78% of the vote, but that was down 8 percentage points from six years ago.
McCormick was winning outright in every region of the state — from the Poconos and one-time coal towns to the central areas around Penn State University to Western Pennsylvania. He lost Philadelphia and its suburbs, but cut down the margins. In Bucks County, just north of Philadelphia, Casey was winning by less than one point; he carried the populous area by 6 points in 2018.
Casey led in early returns, but McCormick overtook him with about 80% of the estimated votes counted just before midnight on Tuesday. Casey initially had a lead over McCormick when just about 40% of the estimated votes had been counted, propelled in part by mailed ballots that have historically favored Democrats.
McCormick was doing better in votes cast on Election Day.
CANDIDATES: Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) and three others
WINNER: McCormick
POLL CLOSING TIME: 8 p.m. ET Tuesday
ABOUT THE RACE: Casey hails from a well-known political family in the state. The son of a popular two-term governor, he served in statewide elected office as auditor general and treasurer before being elected to the Senate in 2006. McCormick is a West Point grad, Army veteran and former investment firm CEO who lost the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz in 2022. Sharp exchanges have punctuated the contest.
McCormick accused Casey of being weak and a career politician. Casey called McCormick a wealthy, carpetbagging ex-hedge fund CEO. Pennsylvania Democrats have found success against GOP rivals in the recent Senate and governor's races.
John Fetterman beat Oz in 2022 by 5 points, and Gov. Josh Shapiro defeated Doug Mastriano handily that year as well, becoming the first governor to be elected to succeed a member of his party since 1966.
WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: McCormick was winning in regions across the state, except Philadelphia and its suburbs, though he cut Casey's margins there from six years ago. Not enough of the outstanding votes still to be counted came from areas that Casey was winning for him to close the gap. Even if he carried six out of 10 of the outstanding votes, he still wouldn't have won.