NEW YORK — A 12-person jury found former President Donald Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records, making him the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a felony.
But will this have any impact on the 2024 presidential election? Will this verdict impact Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign? Will this bring more voters to President Biden?
Local political experts say the verdict could play a key role in swing states this November, like right here in Pennsylvania.
“I think this is an important trial because it is most likely going to be the only trial of four out of 91 indictments that are going to happen before election day," said Dr. Alison Dagnes, professor of political science at Shippensburg University.
But Trump is still the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election. Political analysts said his campaign will use this trial as a way to ramp up fundraising and support.
So, will this verdict really have an impact on his bid for president, especially in key swing states such as here in Pennsylvania?
In a YouGov/YahooNews poll, only 16% of people said they have been watching the trial closely, while more than half said they barely or haven't been following it at all.
But Dagnes said that might change.
“Whether or not the public was tuned in beforehand, I think they’re going to be tuned in now," said Dagnes. "An unanimous and swift verdict of guilt moves Donald Trump to be a convicted felon; that’s never going to change. As a result, this does shift the landscape a bit politically.”
And national polls predicted this.
In an ABC/Ipsos poll back in April, 20% of people said they would either reconsider or withdraw support from Trump if he was convicted.
In tight battleground states like Pennsylvania, Trump leads Biden in national polling, but only by a small percentage. Dagnes says he will need to keep as many supporters as he can in order to beat Biden in the election.
“I think that it was generally assumed that Trump’s numbers would contract a little bit," said Dagnes. "But this is a race that’s going to be won at the margins. So even just a little bit of polling movement is going to matter in any direction.”