A new poll from Franklin and Marshall shows the races for president and for the 10th Congressional District tightening among south-central Pennsylvania voters following former president Donald Trump's conviction on 34 felony charges last week.
The poll, which surveyed 397 registered voters in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District between May 28 and June 2, shows a deviation in results after the verdicts were read on May 30.
The overall poll for the presidential election shows the presumptive Republican nominee Trump leading Democratic President Joe Biden with 44% to Biden's 38% and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 10%. 9% of responses were either for a different candidate or were undecided.
The responses taken after the convictions, however, were closer, with Biden and Trump each receiving 40% of the 167 post-conviction responses, while Kennedy received 13%. 8% were for another candidate or undecided.
The race for the House of Representatives seat in the 10th Congressional District is much closer, with Republican Congressman Scott Perry leading Democrat and former news anchor Janelle Stelson 45% to 44%, with 11% undecided.
Among the 165 registered voters who responded after the May 30 convictions of Trump, Stelson led with 47% to 39% for Perry and 14% undecided.
"Normally, when you look at a campaign event or something that happens in the course of the campaign, it takes time for those effects to be heard and to resonate," said Berwood Yost, the Director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall which conducted the poll. "I was surprised at the speed at which it happened, but in some ways, it's an unprecedented event."
Favorability ratings for Perry and Stelson greatly differed in the poll. 39% of responders view Perry favorably compared to 33% for Stelson, but 41% view the congressman unfavorably compare to 23% for Stelson. 44% of responders did not have an opinion on Stelson compared to 20% for Perry.
Among responders planning to support Stelson, 40% say they will do so primarily to oppose Perry, which Yost says is due to Perry's conservative leaning and affiliation with the House Freedom Caucus, which he previously led.
"I think the issue for Congressman Perry at this point is that he's become sort of a lightning rod," Yost said. "And when we ask people about who they're voting for and why they support that candidate, it's pretty much about Scott Perry."
Trump carried the 10th Congressional District in 2020 by around four percentage points, while Perry won it with nearly 54% of the vote in 2022 to close to 46% for his challenger Shamaine Daniels.
Among responders, 40% say they voted for Trump in 2020 while 36% voted for Biden. 22% of responders did not vote.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 6.1 percentage points.