PENNSYLVANIA, USA — Will old man winter will make it home in time for the holidays? It’s still a little too far away to tell just what weather we may see in South Central Pennsylvania, but let’s talk about our chances!
A "White Christmas" is defined as having at least 1” of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. It doesn’t seem like a hard task, but data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Harrisburg only has about a 20% chance of it occurring. It's a statistic has come down over the decades.
“When you are looking at the chances for a 'White Christmas' in South Central Pa., we go back and look at the [normal levels] from 1991 to 2020," said Lauren Casey, meteorologist for Climate Central. "You take a look at that you have about a 20% percent chance. If we go back further to the beginning of the meteorological record for your area. Which is back to the late 1800’s, it bumps up to about a 26% chance."
Our chance is on the lower end of things, but not completely impossible!
Casey said snowfall over December, January and February has generally decreased in our area, and due to rising temperatures over the season, especially for overnight low temperatures, any snow that does fall, doesn’t stick around for long.
“We are seeing overall less snow cover, for shorter amounts of time as well," Casey said. "We are also seeing a decrease in overnight temperatures that go below the freezing mark so even when it does snow, that snow isn’t sticking around because the overnights. We are seeing fewer nights where we are falling below the freezing mark."
This means in a scenario where snow falls a few days ahead of Christmas, warmer afternoon and overnight temperatures may melt that that snow just in time for the holiday.
Records show that we have 7 fewer nights below 32 degrees than in 1970, and Harrisburg’s average temperature has warmed about 3 degrees since then, as well.
The warming means we also tend to see less snow overall, but the extra moisture in the atmosphere could lead to heavier individual events, if all the ingredients add up just right.
“At most locations we are seeing a decrease over the last several decades in snowfall totals," Casey said. "The caveat is, because we have more moisture availability because of that warmer atmosphere, the snows that do come can be heavier and even bigger snowfalls."
Your Weather Smart Team will be keeping a close eye on the forecast, so stay with FOX43 for any updates to the potential for a "White Christmas".