PENNSYLVANIA, USA — Editor's note: The above video is from April 2023.
The summer days are dwindling down, and if you look at the calendar, winter is a mere four months away.
The Farmers' Almanac is prepared and has released its extended Winter 2024 Weather Forecast.
The almanac took a look at the United States as an entirety, and divided it into zones.
Pennsylvania, along with much of the northeastern coast of the U.S. is in the "frosty, flakey, slushy" zone, and the almanac notes that while this region saw a lack of wintry precipitation during the 2022-23 season, it should be quite the opposite during 2023-24.
Pennsylvania 2023-24 Winter Forecast
The Farmers' Almanac is predicting a colder, more active winter for our region.
In particular, part of their forecast includes a winter weather advisory, which are times that the extended forecast suggests there could be extra cold or precipitation activity.
For example, part of the advisory warns that the second week of January will be stormy, snowy and wet for both the East and Pacific coasts.
During the second week of February, it's predicted that an East Coast storm will affect the northeastern and New England states with snowfall, a cold rain and frigid temperatures.
Finally, it's forecasted that the East Coast will experience a March snowstorm that will be a wintry mess.
Overall, the almanac expects wintry conditions to continue through March 2024, with stormy conditions nationwide.
How accurate is the Farmers' Almanac?
Given that the Farmer's Almanac uses a so-called "top secret" formula, it's probably a good idea to not take the forecasting too seriously.
But, is the Farmer's Almanac right?
History says more often than not, no, and some of its basic forecasts don't really make sense with a predicted onset of El Niño conditions this winter season.
During a typical El Niño winter, the southern tier of Alaska and the U.S. Pacific Northwest tend to be warmer than average. Whereas the U.S. southern tier, from California to the Carolinas, tends to be cooler and wetter than average. In the Northeast, we've seen plenty of variation of warmer than normal to cooler than normal temperatures during an El Niño winter.
There's also other climate patterns to watch that can impact our winter weather, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO). These are patterns we cannot easily forecast in the long range like we can El Niño or La Niña.
In short, long-range forecasting involves numerous factors and is a tricky science.
The FOX43 Weather Smart Team doesn't put much stock in the Farmer's Almanac forecast.
Stay tuned for updates from the team as we get closer to winter weather season with a reliable, science-based forecast you can trust.