LANCASTER, Pa. — In most of the United States, winters are quickly and progressively getting warmer. With this increased warming comes changes to snowfall patterns, including here in Pennsylvania.
“From a big picture perspective, we definitely have seen a reduction in the annual amount of snow that falls," said Dr. Colin Zarzycki, an Assistant Professor of Meteorology and Climate Dynamics at Penn State University. "Like I said, it’s not overly large, but it is there. And really moving forward, we expect those kinds of trends to become more amplified over the coming decades.”
Zarzycki says average Pennsylvanians are noticing this trend, too. Winter hunting might not feature as much snow as it used to, and lakes and ponds aren't freezing over as soon or as often as they once had.
When it comes to what snowstorms will look like in a warmer climate, the science becomes a bit complicated.
Through his studies, Zarzycki has found that in a warmer climate, small and nuisance-type snow storms will occur less often. However, he has also found that bigger snow storms will still happen thanks to more moisture building up in the air.
“Because the atmosphere is warmer, it is carrying more moisture with it," explained Zarzycki. "So when we do get these storms, they’re going to have a tendency to be more of these big-end storms. So we’re taking what maybe would be today a moderate [snowfall] – maybe a six-incher or something like that – and we’re turning that into something that looks like a foot-plus of snow.”
Zarzycki says changing winter precipitation will impact a variety of fields, including aviation and transportation, flood plain management and winter recreation. Pennsylvania ski resorts are aware of the risks and preparing for them.
“As weather variability intensifies all over, there’s an urgency to solve for that," says Andy Debrunner. He is the communications manager for Vail Resorts, which is the parent company for local mountains Roundtop, Liberty and Whitetail.
Debrunner says his company has not yet noticed a big impact on business in Pennsylvania but is preparing for increased variability of snowfall in the future.
“We’ve got an incredible group of snowmakers here that really know what they’re doing," he said. "So even when snowfall isn’t where it needs to be, if the temperatures are right, we’re able to put down a really nice coat of snow.”
Vail Resorts has also introduced an “Epic Pass,” which gives guests access to their mountains across the country. This allows people to travel to resorts that are open, while also keeping business up.